Google translate to Tieng Viet, Khmer or chinese

Thursday 30 January 2014

Is Fed Tapering Finally Lifting the Dollar?

The Federal Reserve’s decision to taper asset purchases on Wednesday should have been positive for the U.S. dollar. However the greenback failed to rally on the news because the market was distracted by the turmoil in the emerging markets. The stabilization in the Turkish Lira and South African Rand today took some of the focus off EM FX and allowed investors to consider the U.S. central bank’s recent action. The concurrent rise in the U.S. dollar, S&P 500 and Treasury yields is a sign that U.S. assets are back in demand. According to the fourth quarter GDP numbers, the U.S economy continues to grow at a healthy rate. Although GDP growth slowed to 3.2% from 4.1% in Q4, anything above 3% growth is consistent with a broader recovery. This solid course of growth is one of the main reasons why stocks can rise even as the Fed tapers. Forward guidance is also working because the increase in 10-year yields has been nominal. The rally in U.S. stocks indicates that the dollar is not rising because of a flight to quality. However given that the evolving situation in the emerging markets, risk aversion could still return, posing a risk to the rally in USD/JPY. If that occurs, we will view a sell-off in USD/JPY as an opportunity to buy at lower levels. Tomorrow’s personal income and spending numbers are not expected to have a significant impact on the greenback. The Chicago PMI index and final University of Michigan consumer confidence survey for January are also due for release. Given the improvements in manufacturing conditions in the NY and Philadelphia regions, we are looking for an uptick in activity in Chicago. As long as the data is not terrible, it will justify the Federal Reserve’s decision to taper this week.
Today’s U.S. economic reports were mixed. GDP growth slowed to 3.2% from 4.1% in the fourth quarter while jobless claims rose from 329k to 348k. As mentioned earlier anything above 3% GDP growth is healthy and consistent with a continued recovery in the U.S. economy especially when personal consumption growth accelerated to 3.3% from 2%. This was slightly weaker than expected but still a strong reading. When combined with third quarter results, this was the best pace of growth for the second half of the year since 2003. Of course, there are always areas of concern and pockets of weakness with fixed residential investment declining and overall growth slowing but in general, the data was positive for the dollar. The increase in jobless claims would be concerning if not for the potential impact of inclement weather and the MLK holiday. We expect USD/JPY to break 103 in the near term.

US dollar maintains a bullish trend

US dollar preserve bullish trend for February. Don't buy any trades against the dollar. As poor US data did not affect the dollar at all, maintaining a firm and bullish stance. 

EUR/NZD

Taking a short position here at 1.665, Target looking at 1.60. Stops at 1.6702 . It's a 650 pip gain trade here. 1 ctr to gain $650. 

US GDP

USD/JPY is taking it cue tonight on S&P as dollar rises on US GDP data. 

USD/JPY Breakout trade Strategy

As you can see from below, 2 bull candles are formed. Breaking the 100day MA and upper boilinger band on the hourly chart. I had long this pair at 102.60 target 104.00 140pips gain. Stop loss at 101.80. Added on positions after 10pm US home sales. 

AUD/USD

Nice bull candle. Forming a uptrend on the hourly chart. Next resistance 0.882. But beware of the 10pm US home sales data. Beter to exit all trades here. Gaining 60pips on this trade. Cheers. 

US data

US Q4 data growth slows: consumption rises but falls short of forecasts. Jobless claims rises. Certainly not the kind of data needed for tapering 

AUD/USD trade

As analyzed my entry 0.874 had touch the upper boilinger band , those investor who is less risk adverse, can take half the profit here 40 pips $ into the pocket, now the chart shows buyer in control , breaking the 100MA resistance line , this is a breakout the the bull candle shows strong a clean shaven green bar. Show up trend is forming. Let the other half of the contracts flow. 

Fxasiatrade is now on Facebook

Kindly like my page and account on Facebook to follow the latest forex signals and advice. 

WTI Crude oil

Crude oil looking good through elliot 5 wave theory. Completing a 3 wave correction to $98 pips gain 185. $1850 for 10ctrs. 

AUD/USD 15min timeframe

This trade uses the approach strategy, forming a reversal to the upside hitting the resistance. Entry point at 0.8740, limit 0.8780 Stop loss 0.8720 Gain 40:20 risks. 

FOMC meeting

Through this FOMC meeting this week, $10B tapering by fed. Shows signs of USD gaining strength and further movement of the US dollar index. 

Below are the 10 takeaways!!! 

First Trade of the day EUR/GBP

This trade is done by my own analysis of head and shoulders and candlesticks. From the below chart: Shows that price will be moving in a bull trend manner follow by a elliot wave swing to the bottom. So my trade of the day EUR/GBP long 0.824 limit at 0.84, Stops at 0.8190, giving me a 160 pip gain stop at 60 pip loss. If you are a capital rich investor 10ctrs : Gain $1600, loss $600. 

Forex trades

Below are the few trades that I have made last week, gaining a total of $833 for the week. I'm using a few strategies of mine formulated to gain at least 66% winning trades and using the martingale system for forex. It's not comparable to gambling but I double up the number of contracts whenever I have a losing contract. Meaning 1ctr, 2ctr ,4 ctr and lastly 8 ctr and the last one. By using my way of predicting the market movement by the 8 contract you will at least have a winning trade covering your loses previously. And doubling up your pips making it a double ctr and double pip gain. Example: 1 ctr 50pip stop loss 100pip gain. So if I lose I will only lose $50 and in the 2ctr win, will be a gain of $200-$50 lose before on the first contract. Having a positive gain of $150.

Below is the attached of my earnings on IG Markets. 

Trading on economic news

Economic news can cause forex volatility and so the pips earnings will be more desirable. Example buying 1 pip Eur/USD during FOMC meeting yesterday. If the news is positive towards the right direction you have bought. You will gain 100+ pips earning $100 in this a few minutes after the news release. 

The US economic calendar for today.

Introduction


Fxasiatrade is created and founded by me as i would like to educate the people in Southeast asia on gaining financial freedom through forex trading. I will posts daily forex trades on my blog for free and interested investors or people who are interested to learn on forex trading could contact me at fxasiatrade@outlook.com or contact me at +855 979523578 (Cambodia) or +65 92726267 Singapore).
Currently im based in Phnom Penh Cambodia doing on Forex Teaching.