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Wednesday 12 March 2014

Gold Breaks Out While Oil and Copper Dip as China Jitters Continue

Talking Points

  • WTI falls below $100.00 with technicals hinting at further declines
  • Gold advances on $1,360 following a breakout in Asian trading
  • Risk trends and China data to offer further guidance on copper and crude

Crude oil and copper resumed their descent during US trading overnight as ongoing jitters surrounding China likely weighed on investor sentiment. Meanwhile gold has broken above the $1,351 mark in Asian trading with the precious metal benefiting from safe-haven flows.

WTI Slips Below $100.00
Following a stabilisation of prices during Asian trading yesterday the crude oil bears emerged during US hours and pushed the WTI contract back below the $100.00 handle. Broad-based risk aversion was likely a contributor given that declines were also witnessed in US equity indices.

Upcoming inventories data may provide the commodity further directional cues. The DOE’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report is expected to reveal a build in crude inventories of 2,000K barrels - according to the median estimate from economists. This would make it the 8th consecutive weekly gain for the measure and may reflect lower demand for crude oil. Newswires have attributed the build in inventories to seasonal factors including more moderate weather on the US East Coast and lower demand from refineries.

Geopolitical Risks Remain
Gold has spiked towards the $1,360 level in early Asian trading as nervous investors are likely moving away from the equities space and looking towards the precious metal as a potential safe-haven. Elevated geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europehave helped drive gold to its current levelsas the Ukrainian-Russian stand-off continues. Indeed, the chart below illustrates that the yellow metal tends to strengthen during periods of heightened geopolitical risk. Thus a further escalation in Ukraine would likely bode well for gold.

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